Mitch Marner, the electrifying right‑winger of the Toronto Maple Leafs, has officially entered free agency—and the projections are staggering. Industry insiders believe the star forward is poised to secure a landmark deal worth over US $14 million per season, potentially surpassing all previous records for NHL wingers .
Rising Cap Fuels the Frenzy
The backdrop to Marner’s surge is the NHL’s rising salary cap. With a cap projected to jump from about $88 million to $95.5 million in 2025‑26, elite players are now in position to command unprecedented deals Analysts from AFP and Sportsnet suggest that Marner could comfortably land in the $13–14 M AAV range—and possibly beyond if he excels deep into the playoffs
Comparing with the Best
Leon Draisaitl, the reigning highest‑paid NHL player, is set to earn $14 million annually. Catching that level would put Marner in rarified air alongside the likes of Draisaitl, and above even Auston Matthews—Toronto’s current highest‑paid player at $13.25 M AAV
A Street Fight for Superfans
The free agent market is already overheated. Marner’s suitors reportedly include teams like the Anaheim Ducks and the Vegas Golden Knights, both prepared to throw game‑changing money at him . Oddly, even the newly enfranchised Utah Mammoth franchise is in the mix, signaling their intent to make a dramatic statement this offseason
Will He Stay in Toronto?
Despite the external clamor, Marner appears open to staying in Toronto—his hometown and the team he’s grown into—if the offer is right Some analysts predict an eight‑year, $128 million deal with Toronto, equating to $16 million per season—an absolute franchise-breaking number
Still, negotiation roadblocks persist. Toronto has reportedly capped its initial offer around $13 M AAV—leaving both sides at an impasse Furthermore, Marner refused to waive his no‑trade clause during offseason trade talks involving Carolina, adding fuel to speculation that he may be testing the open market
The Stakes
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For Marner: Landing over $14 M AAV would not only cement him as the highest‑paid winger in NHL history but also reward his consistent 100‑point seasons.
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For Toronto: Signing Marner beyond Matthews’ $13.25 M AAV could unsettle the salary structure for their core group.
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For the NHL: This epochal contract could redefine the premium placed on playmaking wingers and escalate future market expectations.
Bottom Line
Mitch Marner’s journey this summer transcends routine contract talk—it’s a career‑defining moment and a leverage pivot that could mark him as the top‑paid winger in NHL history. All eyes are now on July 1. Will Toronto fold and hand Marner the bag? Or will another franchise swoop in with a jaw‑dropping offer?
